Trump’s Greenland Push Puts Iceland’s EU Future on the Line
Icelanders will vote on Saturday in a closely contested referendum that could reopen the country’s long-suspended negotiations to join the European Union.
The vote asks whether Iceland should resume accession talks with the 27-member bloc, 13 years after negotiations were halted.
Although the referendum is advisory, a victory for the Yes campaign would give the government a mandate to restart the process.
Any eventual membership agreement would still have to be presented to Icelanders in another referendum.
The vote is taking place as the Arctic assumes greater strategic importance, with melting sea ice opening new shipping possibilities and increasing interest in the region’s natural resources.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated efforts to gain control of Greenland have added a security dimension to Iceland’s EU debate.
Trump has argued that Greenland is strategically important to American national security, while his stance has triggered wider concerns among some Icelanders about the future of their country’s relationship with the United States.
Eiríkur Bergmann, a politics professor at Bifröst University, said the security arguments being used in relation to Greenland could also apply to Iceland because of its strategic location.
Iceland is a founding member of NATO but does not maintain its own military. Its defence has traditionally depended on NATO membership and a bilateral defence agreement with the United States dating back to 1951.
The country also occupies a crucial position along the GIUK Gap, a strategic maritime passage connecting Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom between the Arctic and North Atlantic.
Bergmann said uncertainty surrounding the reliability of the United States as a security partner had caused some Icelanders to reconsider their traditional defence arrangements.
However, security concerns are only part of the argument. The economy, national sovereignty and the future of Iceland’s fishing industry remain major issues in the referendum campaign.
Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009, following the financial crisis that badly affected its economy. Negotiations were later suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic coalition came to power.
Supporters of reopening the talks argue that EU membership could provide greater economic stability, particularly through eventual adoption of the euro.
Jon Danielsson, director of the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics, said the euro remains a major attraction for Icelanders concerned about the instability of the country’s currency and high interest rates.
Fishing, however, remains one of the most sensitive issues surrounding membership.
Iceland has long protected control over its fishing grounds, and concerns about how EU rules could affect the industry have contributed to resistance to membership.
Danielsson said the fishing question would remain critical even if voters backed the resumption of negotiations.
Iceland is already closely connected to Europe without being an EU member. Through the European Economic Area, it has access to the bloc’s single market, while its membership of the Schengen Area allows passport-free travel with participating European countries.
Former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir has maintained her opposition to EU membership, arguing that Iceland already enjoys strong economic cooperation with the bloc and a high standard of living.
For the European Union, a renewed Icelandic membership bid could also carry political significance.
Analysts say bringing Iceland into the bloc would provide the EU with a prosperous, highly democratic Nordic country at a time when European integration is still dealing with the consequences of Britain’s departure.
A Yes vote would therefore do more than revive a membership process abandoned more than a decade ago.
It could signal a major shift in how Iceland views its economic future, sovereignty and security in an increasingly uncertain Arctic.
